In a postponed Matchday 2 fixture in the Eliteserien, Lillestrøm will host Kristiansund. The two teams sit third and 12th in the table respectively, but based on recent match data, the total number of goals in this game may not be very high.
The home side Lillestrøm have scored 16 goals in 9 matches this season, averaging 1.78 goals per game, which is a decent attacking return. However, it is worth noting that four of Lillestrøm's last six matches have gone under, and in three of those games the total goals did not exceed two. At home, Lillestrøm have scored 10 goals in 4 matches, which may look impressive, but two of their last three home games have gone under, showing that their matches have not been overly open in tempo.
Kristiansund's attacking numbers are even more subdued, with just 7 goals in 8 matches, averaging 0.88 goals per game. Away from home, they have scored only once in 4 matches, making their away attack extremely limited. More importantly, 7 of Kristiansund's last 8 matches have gone under, giving them an under rate of 87.5%, and all 4 of their away matches have gone under. Their away approach is very clear: sit deep, defend compactly, and be content to avoid a heavy defeat.
In the over/under market, bookmakers generally opened with a line of 3 to 3.5 goals, and most closing lines moved up to 3.5. However, the odds for the over side have generally risen from the 0.79-1.02 range to a high of 0.90-1.03, while the under odds have correspondingly dropped to 0.78-0.92, suggesting that bookmakers are not particularly confident in the over.
In the head-to-head record, the over rate in the last 10 meetings between the two sides is only 30%, and 3 of the last 4 encounters have gone under, with the overall pattern tending to be fairly tight.
Taking into account Kristiansund's lack of attacking threat away from home, the recent under trend for both teams, and the signals from the market, this match is likely to finish with no more than 3 total goals.