In Round 16 of the Estonian Meistriliiga, Kuressaare host Narva. It is a match between two teams in the lower half of the table, but judging by both sides’ defensive numbers and the match-up, there should be plenty of goals. Kuressaare have scored 9 goals in 7 home matches this season, averaging 1.29 goals per game, so their attacking efficiency is not particularly high. However, against a defense of Narva’s level, the home side should still create plenty of chances — Narva have lost all 7 away matches, conceding 26 goals at an average of 3.71 per game, with their away defense virtually non-existent. More importantly, Narva have conceded at least 2 goals in 4 of their last 6 league matches, and their back line has been completely unable to cope with sustained pressure from opponents. Although Narva’s away attack has basically stalled, with just 2 goals scored in 7 matches, Kuressaare’s home defense is not exactly solid either — they have conceded 11 goals in 7 home games, an average of 1.57 per match, and could give up goals against any opponent. Narva may be limited overall, but in recent matches against lower- and mid-table teams, they have not been completely devoid of scoring ability. In terms of the over/under market, bookmakers generally set the line at 2.5/3 goals, with the over price holding steadily in the 0.82-0.95 range after opening between 0.69 and 0.94. Betvictor’s over price is as low as 0.68, while Crown and 36 also keep the over price in a reasonable 0.84-0.93 range. With the line set relatively high and the over price not rising significantly, bookmakers appear to be clearly guarding against the over. The head-to-head record also supports the over. The over rate in the last 10 meetings between the two teams is 28.5%, but 2 of the last 3 clashes have gone over, including scorelines such as 2-2 and 2-1. Taking into account Narva’s defensive flaws away from home, Kuressaare’s more open style in home matches, and the market signals, a high-scoring game looks likely.