In this opening group-stage match at the World Cup, the movement in the handicap lines has been quite striking. Although Iran have the edge in strength, the market trend has revealed risk signals that cannot be ignored, and the unbeaten direction for New Zealand is worth close attention. First, let’s look at the handicap movement. In the initial stage, many bookmakers opened Iran at -1, with the home side’s odds concentrated in the high range of 1.04 to 1.12, and some companies even went with -0.75/1. As the match approached, the line saw a sharp retreat, with almost all bookmakers dropping from -1 to -0.5. Such a large adjustment is extremely rare in a World Cup opener. More importantly, after the line was lowered, the home side’s odds did not show a significant decline; instead, they were collectively pushed up from the low initial level into the mid-to-high range of 0.90 to 0.97. One bookmaker moved from -1 to -0.5, with the home odds adjusted from 1.04 to 0.93. Another dropped from -0.75/1 to -0.5, while the home odds surged from 0.75 to 0.92. This combination of a line drop and higher home odds clearly shows that bookmakers’ confidence in Iran covering the spread has weakened significantly. A retreat from -1 to -0.5 means the hurdle has been lowered by two levels directly, leaving Iran needing only a straight win to cover, which greatly reduces the difficulty of the bet. But this also tends to pile up support on the favorite, making it extremely unfavorable for Iran to deliver against the spread. The fundamentals also offer reasons to support New Zealand. Iran’s last 10 matches produced 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats, a win rate of only 40%. Although their unbeaten rate stands at a high 80%, the number of draws suggests that the team lacks the ability to finish off opponents decisively against similarly matched or slightly weaker sides. Defensive midfielder Rouzbeh Cheshmi is sidelined with a knee injury, slightly weakening the team’s defensive shield. New Zealand, meanwhile, have only 1 win, 1 draw, and 8 losses in their last 10 matches, a poor record overall, but their record against the handicap has not been bad, with a 50% cover rate. They lost only 1-0 to England and were edged 2-1 by Colombia, showing that their defense is far from fragile. In terms of the squad, New Zealand are fully fit and able to field their strongest side, and their physical reserves and intensity in duels often create problems for technically oriented teams. Iran may have the superior overall quality, but the pressure of a World Cup opener, combined with the negative impact of the sharp handicap retreat, means a comfortable win will not come easily. Taking both the scale of the line movement and the underlying fundamentals into account, backing New Zealand in the unbeaten direction is worth following.