First, let’s look at the handicap movement. In the opening stage, several bookmakers installed England at a -1.5/-2 line, with the home side’s odds clustered in the low range of 0.81 to 0.87. But as kickoff approached, the line was raised across the board, with most firms moving from -1.5/-2 to -2 or even -2/-2.5. Along with the upgrade, the home side’s odds did not drift lower; instead, they surged sharply from the early low level. Some companies that held at -2 saw England’s odds fall from 0.81 to an ultra-low 0.73 to 0.76, while the away side’s odds were pushed up to 1.09 to 1.11. Other bookmakers that moved to -2/-2.5 pushed England’s odds above 1.00. The combination of a higher line and sharply divergent home-side odds shows a messy market structure, suggesting that bookmakers are not unified in their confidence in an England blowout, with some using a deeper line and high home odds to attract money toward the favorite. The fundamentals also offer support for that view. England have won seven of their last 10 matches, but a closer look at the scores shows that seven of those games finished with no more than two total goals. Their attacking commitment in friendlies has long been an issue. In their last match on neutral ground against New Zealand, they only managed a 1-0 win despite being priced behind a -2.5 line. With the World Cup about to begin, England’s main priority is avoiding injuries and building chemistry, not chasing a runaway victory. The playing time of key players will inevitably be tightly managed, and once heavy rotation is introduced, attacking efficiency up front is likely to drop noticeably. Costa Rica are far inferior to England in overall strength, but they have avoided defeat in seven of their last 10 matches, with a clear tendency toward draws. They have managed to score against stronger opponents such as Colombia and the United States, so they are by no means without a threat. In the head-to-head record, the two sides have met twice before, with England winning once and drawing once. Notably, their 2014 World Cup group-stage meeting ended in a dull 0-0 stalemate. Costa Rica always seem to show a resilience against England that makes them hard to break down. Taken together, the upgraded handicap, the confusing odds movement, and England’s usual approach to conserving energy in friendlies make it worth paying attention to the visitors staying within the two-goal threshold. Predicted score: England 2-0 or 1-0.