On the final round of La Liga, Real Betis host Levante at home. The hosts sit fifth and still have a chance of fighting for European qualification, while the visitors are 15th, having already secured survival and entering the match with nothing at stake. On paper, in terms of league position and motivation, Betis should hold a clear advantage. But the handicap market is sending a different signal. The Asian handicap opened with Betis as -0.5, but by kick-off it had been adjusted down to -0.25/-0.5. The home side’s water level eased slightly from the 0.98-1.00 range to 0.95-0.98, yet it still remained at a relatively high level. This line movement deserves close reading. With Betis still needing points and playing at home, the opening half-goal handicap was a reasonable but somewhat shallow position — after all, Betis have gone 9 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats in 18 home league matches this season, with an unbeaten rate above 80%. But the in-play drop to -0.25/-0.5 suggests that the bookmaker’s confidence in a home win has weakened. After the line was lowered, the home price was not pushed down into the low-water range below 0.85, but instead stayed around 0.95 in the mid-to-high zone, leaving the liability still concentrated on the home side. If the bookmaker were truly backing Betis, a more logical move would have been to keep the half-goal line and control the price, rather than cut the handicap and still allow the payout risk to rise. The European odds also confirm this view. The home win price has drifted up from the 1.85-1.90 range to 2.00-2.05, while the draw has been cut from 3.40-3.50 to 3.20-3.30, and the away win has shortened from 3.80-4.00 to 3.60-3.70. The market’s late adjustment clearly points toward Levante avoiding defeat, and the concentration of interest at the lower draw price is an important signal — in a season finale like this, a draw is a result both sides could live with. Although Levante are lower in the table, their recent form has been excellent. In their last six matches, they have recorded four wins, one draw and one defeat, with a 83.3% handicap cover rate, including away wins over Celta Vigo and home victories against Osasuna and Mallorca. This team has shown strong resilience and execution in the closing stages of the season and is by no means a side simply there to make up the numbers. Looking at the head-to-head record, Betis have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 in the last 10 meetings, so their home advantage has not been particularly clear. In the last two encounters, Betis won 3-1 at home, but Levante also beat Betis 4-3 away, so the results have gone both ways. Overall, with the handicap being cut and the home price still high, while the European odds have pushed the home win up and the draw remains tightly priced, Levante are in better recent form. The recommended selection is Levante +0.25/+0.5.