In Round 8 of the Norwegian Eliteserien, Start host Bodø/Glimt. On the standings, this is a lopsided meeting between the league leaders and the bottom side, but judging by the movement of the goal line, the total number of goals may not be as exaggerated as in the reverse fixture.
The home side Start are still without a win this season, with a record of 0 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses from 9 matches. In attack, they have scored only 9 goals in 9 games, averaging 1 goal per match. They have drawn all 3 of their home games, scoring 3 and conceding 3, with a relatively conservative pace of play. Although their overall strength is limited, Start have not been easy to break down at home — they have conceded just 3 goals in their 3 home matches, keeping two clean sheets.
The visitors Bodø/Glimt boast the most potent attack in the Norwegian Eliteserien, having scored 19 goals in 8 matches, an average of 2.38 per game. However, it is worth noting that 4 of their last 6 matches have gone under the total, and in 3 of their 4 away games the total goals have not exceeded 2. They beat Start 5-0 at home in the first meeting, but that was more of an isolated case of Bodø/Glimt firing on all cylinders at home; their scoring efficiency has dipped somewhat away from home.
In terms of the over/under line, bookmakers are generally setting the benchmark at 3.5 goals, with the over priced in the 0.80-0.95 range and the under in the 0.85-0.95 range. Compared with the 3.5-goal line in the first fixture, the total goals threshold has not been raised significantly despite the 5-0 result, suggesting bookmakers are cautious about expecting another high-scoring game.
Looking at the head-to-head record, 66.7% of the last 10 meetings have gone over, but in Start's last 4 home matches against Bodø/Glimt, 3 have gone under, so this is not a fixture that is always open at this ground.
Taking into account Start's cautious home approach, Bodø/Glimt's reduced scoring efficiency away from home, and the current market positioning, the total goals are expected to stay under 3.