In the fifth round of the Copa Libertadores group stage, Santa Fe host Platense. The home side are bottom of the group, while the visitors sit second, with both teams still fighting for qualification.
Santa Fe have been in decent form lately, with three wins, two draws and one defeat in their last six matches, and they are unbeaten in their last three at home with two wins and one draw. However, they are still yet to record a win in the Copa Libertadores, managing two draws and two defeats from four games, and have shown no real dominance at either end of the pitch. In the first-leg meeting, they lost 2-1 away from home, so they are also at a psychological disadvantage.
Platense, although their overall recent results have been poor, have been solid in the Copa Libertadores, with two wins, one draw and one defeat from four matches, including one win and one loss in two away games. They beat Santa Fe 2-1 at home in the first leg, giving them a clear psychological edge. In terms of the squad, the visitors are without Gonni, Bobadilla and Minerva, but their overall structure remains relatively intact.
In the handicap market, bookmakers initially offered a mixed line of half a goal and level ball/half a goal, but the closing line has uniformly dropped back to level ball/half a goal. The home side’s price has risen from the 0.82-0.88 range to a high of 0.89-0.96, while the visitors’ price has eased correspondingly to 0.91-0.99. For a team playing at home and in better form, a level-ball/half-goal line with the home price rising offers limited backing.
Taking into account the first-leg result, the movement in the handicap line, and the visitors’ overall stability in the group stage, the away side are backed to avoid defeat.