Let’s first pull the curtain back on the mindset here. This Côte d'Ivoire side are a ruthless bunch: Kessié does the dirty work in midfield, Haller brings the physical battle, and Amad Diallo provides the spark out wide. They look dangerous everywhere, but when it comes to the knockout stage, African teams do the math better than anyone—concede one and you’re out, so who’s going to be thinking only about going forward? More likely, they’ll lock things down at the back first, spend the opening 45 minutes probing each other’s weaknesses, and only then try to steal a goal once they’ve figured Norway out. On Norway’s side, Haaland is obviously the main weapon, but once Ødegaard gets glued to by Kessié, those killer passes get cut off at the source. Against pace-based opponents, the Vikings’ instinct is to pack the middle, squeeze the space, and leave the wings to you for crosses—but Côte d'Ivoire’s crossing quality, mate, is really hard to rate highly; eight out of ten just sail straight toward the corner flag. With both sides so tightly wound and neither willing to show their hand first, a cagey feel starts building from the opening minute. As for the numbers, let's have a proper look. In CAF qualifying, when Côte d'Ivoire faced compact defensive setups, their open-play expected goals (xG) dropped sharply, and in 4 of their 6 matches the total goals stayed at two or fewer. When Norway play away against disciplined defenses, Haaland’s touches drop significantly, and the team’s shot-on-target rate falls to around 30 percent. The line has moved from 2.5 to 2.5/3, which feels more like the market paying respect to Haaland than a true reflection of both teams’ attacking firepower. In a matchup like this, with each side wary of the other and neither wanting to overcommit, it often grinds out a 0-0 or 1-0. The danger zones also need to be flagged, blimey. If a corner-kick scramble bounces in somehow, or Haaland unleashes an outrageous strike from outside the box, the tempo could get chaotic and the under suddenly looks shaky. But the under 2.5/3 is about a cautious duel, not an all-out shootout: 0-0 or 1-0 gets the full payout, 2-1 loses only half, and only if it gets to three goals or more does it completely go wrong. This is strictly a small flutter, not a mortgage job. A light stake is the way to go