This international friendly between Ecuador and Guatemala points toward a home win based on the underlying numbers, though it is far from a certainty. Ecuador are on an impressive 18-match unbeaten run, with 7 wins and 11 draws, showing they can go toe-to-toe with strong opposition without losing. Their home form is excellent, with 7 wins from their last 10 home matches, and their defensive record is outstanding, conceding just 0.6 goals per game. The head-to-head history also leans in their favor, with a 2-0 win over Guatemala in their last meeting. That said, there is still risk: Ecuador have drawn 11 of their last 18 matches, and Guatemala’s recent wins suggest they are capable of making life difficult for the hosts. This makes the home selection a high-probability, but not guaranteed, choice.