Japan U19 drew 3-3 with Ivory Coast U23 in the opening round, producing six goals in total. The game was very open, and their defensive issues were laid bare. Although Portugal U20 had a bye in the first round, the team has been in excellent attacking form recently, scoring 18 goals in their last 10 matches at an average of 1.8 per game. They have also gone over in 6 of those 10 matches, with an over rate of 60%.
Another factor is the recent over trend for both sides. Japan U19 have also seen the over land in 57.1% of their last 10 matches, with multiple games finishing with three or more goals. Portugal U20 have gone over in 8 of their last 10 matches, an impressive 80% over rate, and their games have generally been played at an open tempo. With two teams that are both poor defensively meeting here, goals should not be in short supply.
From a handicap perspective, the mainstream bookmakers opened at 2.5/3 goals, and the live line has mostly moved up to 3 goals. The odds for the over have remained in the low-to-mid range of 0.88 to 0.96, showing that the market’s confidence in the over has continued to grow. Even as the line has risen, the odds have not increased significantly, which clearly suggests genuine support for the over.
Overall, Japan U19’s defense is unstable, Portugal U20 possess strong attacking firepower, and both sides have over rates above 50% in recent matches. The upward move in the line also favors the over.