In Round 34 of the Saudi Pro League, Al-Najmah host Al-Shabab. It is a season finale with little suspense — the home side have already been relegated, while the visitors are safely in mid-table with nothing at stake. But in terms of quality and motivation, the away team still have every condition to secure a comfortable win. First, the hosts. Al-Najmah’s record after 33 rounds this season stands at 2 wins, 7 draws and 24 losses, with just 13 points, confirming bottom place well in advance. At home, they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 10 defeats in 16 matches, scoring 20 and conceding 36, an average of 2.25 goals shipped per game. Their defence has been virtually non-existent. Worse still, full-backs Kunaydiiri and Abdulaziz are both long-term absentees, leaving their flank defence wide open. In their last six matches, they have managed just 1 win, 2 draws and 3 losses, with the only victory coming in a 2-1 home win over NEOM SC — a match in which the opponent played with 10 men, so the value of that result was limited. As for the visitors, Al-Shabab may sit 13th, but their overall strength and squad quality are well above the hosts’. Players such as Carrasco, Brownhill and Al-Bulaihi offer individual quality that is solidly above average in the Saudi Pro League. Their away record of 2 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses from 16 matches is not impressive, but five of the seven defeats were by a single goal, meaning they have rarely been blown away. Against a defence of Al-Najmah’s level, however, Al-Shabab’s attack has a chance to produce a season-ending statistical feast. In the first meeting, Al-Shabab were held to a 0-0 draw at home by Al-Najmah. In that match, the visitors had over 65% possession and took 15 shots, yet still failed to score. Having failed to win at home, there is a sense that they owe this one on the road. In the betting market, bookmakers have generally installed the visitors as one-goal or one-and-a-half-goal favourites, with Al-Shabab’s odds staying in the 0.80-0.90 range from opening to closing. For a side whose away win rate is only 12.5%, that line is quite deep, suggesting the market expects a fairly emphatic away victory. Al-Najmah are already relegated, and it remains to be seen how long their home pride can last in the final game of the season. Al-Shabab, while having little left to play for, should reasonably be expected to end their campaign with a convincing win against the league’s weakest side. The pick is Al-Shabab to win by two goals or more away from home.