In Round 20 of the Lithuanian First Division, Sūduva will host Šiauliai. Based on the two teams’ attacking and defensive numbers as well as the match-up, this looks like a game with strong over potential. Sūduva have been unbeaten in nine home matches this season, with five wins and four draws. They have scored 14 goals and conceded only four at home, showing a very strong level of dominance at both ends of the pitch. Although starting striker Agbol is unavailable, Sūduva’s home firepower remains intact — six of their last 10 home matches have produced at least three total goals. Against a Šiauliai side that has been loose defensively on the road, Sūduva should have no shortage of chances. Šiauliai’s away form is the key opening in this handicap. In 10 away matches, they have recorded 0 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats. Although their unbeaten rate stands at 70%, there are obvious flaws at the back — they concede 1.4 goals per away game on average, and against mid- to upper-table teams they often concede two or more. In their last six league matches, Šiauliai have gone over the total in four, so their games have not been overly cautious. In the over/under market, bookmakers generally set the line at 2.5 goals. The over price has held steadily in the 0.79-0.98 range after opening between 0.62-0.95, while the under price has moved lower accordingly to 0.68-0.97. BetVictor’s over price has dropped as low as 0.65, and companies such as Crown* and Ming Sheng have also kept the over price in a reasonable 0.85-0.98 range, showing that the market has not reduced its caution toward the over. The head-to-head record also supports the over. The over rate in the last 10 meetings between the two sides is 44.4%, and the last four encounters have all gone over, including scorelines such as 2-2, 2-1 and 2-2.