The market currently sets a +0.5 handicap in favor of the visitors.
From a professional handicapper’s perspective, this matchup is centered on tactical discipline and limiting transitions. While the United States have home advantage, their recent warm-up run exposed clear defensive issues, with three losses in four matches, leaving them vulnerable under high-pressure expectations.
Paraguay rely on a highly disciplined low-block structure. Alfaro’s side will aim to suffocate central spaces, forcing the USMNT into static, side-to-side possession while using Almiron to lead the counter-press. Given the hosts’ struggling transition defense, the visitors have the structural maturity to hold firm.
Recommended Direction: Paraguay +0.5