Although the away side holds the edge in overall strength for this match, the betting line suggests the home team has a strong chance of keeping the handicap.
There was considerable divergence in the opening lines offered by mainstream bookmakers, with some institutions pricing the visitors at -1 to -1.5, but the live line was uniformly adjusted to away -1.5. At the same time, the away side’s water level rose sharply from the low range of around 0.80 to above 1.00, showing that the bookmakers are clearly not confident in the visitors securing a big away win. Given the visitors’ record of nine wins in their last 10 matches and a dominant head-to-head edge of five wins and one draw, this kind of line movement and even a potential drop in the handicap is highly unfavorable.
The home side has been decent in attack at home, scoring 19 goals in 6 matches at an average of more than 3 per game, and they do have a certain counterattacking threat. Against an away team whose defense on the road is not exactly solid, conceding an average of 1.67 goals per away match, a home goal is far from unrealistic. For this match, the home team is backed to keep the handicap at home.