From a fundamental perspective, neither side has been short of goals lately. The home team have scored 12 goals in their last 6 matches, averaging 2 per game, and all of their last 3 home games have gone over. The away team have scored 6 goals in their last 6 matches, with a relatively subdued attack, but their away defense has shown obvious weaknesses.
The opening total for this match was 2.5/3 goals, and it has remained at 2.5/3 ahead of kick-off. The over price has dropped from the 0.72-0.90 range to a lower level of 0.76-0.86. This line movement is worth noting.
Given a 75% over rate in recent home matches, the 2.5/3 line is a reasonably deep total. With the over price being pushed further down from its already low opening level to below 0.80, it suggests bookmakers are growing more confident in the over while strictly controlling payout risk. At several bookmakers, the over price has already fallen to an ultra-low 0.76-0.82, which is a typical positive signal for the over.
The first-leg meeting between these two sides ended 1-1 and stayed under, but back at this home ground, the home team's attacking firepower is likely to be unleashed. The home side are averaging 1.69 goals per home match this season, so their attacking output is well supported. The away team are conceding 1.25 goals per away match on average, and their defense is not solid.
Overall assessment: the line is set relatively deep, and the over price continues to be压低, while the home team's attacking performance at home is reliable.
Score picks: 1-2, 2-2.