Coquimbo are eighth, while Audax Italiano sit third from bottom. The gap is five points, but the difference in form and squad quality is much greater than that suggests.
Coquimbo have three wins, one draw and two defeats in their last six matches. They recently beat Colo-Colo 1-0 at home, and their form in the Chilean League Cup has been solid. At home, they have two wins, one draw and two losses from five matches — not dominant, but good enough. Suspended centre-back Fernández is a blow, but the overall structure remains intact.
Audax Italiano’s problems are far more serious. Away from home, they have five matches with no wins, one draw and four defeats — not a single victory. They have scored just three goals and conceded nine, making their away attack almost non-existent. Worse still is the injury situation: six players are unavailable — first-choice centre-back Muñoz with a torn ACL, first-choice defensive midfielder Andrés with a muscle tear, first-choice central midfielder Orellana with a torn ACL, central midfielder Mateos with a muscle tear, attacking midfielder Aedo with an ankle fracture, and striker Dunski with a muscle tear. Three lines of the team are ravaged; this is no longer normal rotation, but the entire spine of the side has gone.
The opening line had the home team giving half a goal, and more than ten bookmakers were aligned on that. A low-water half-goal line clearly shows protection for the home side; the bookmakers do not want the price on the favoured team to rise too much, and the signals are consistent.
In the last four head-to-head meetings, Coquimbo have three wins and one draw, with two of those wins coming at home. With this current squad, Audax Italiano would struggle to cope with a normal match, let alone pull off an away turnaround.