Today, I’m breaking down the match between Uruguay and Spain. I’ve gone through both teams’ recent attacking and defensive data as well as their tactical tendencies, and I’m leaning toward the total goals going over the 2.25 line. Let me walk you through the key logic. First, the data supports it. Spain’s possession-based quality is well known. They average an expected goals (xG) figure of 2.7, have an 86% passing success rate in the final third, and a low PPDA of 8.9 in high pressing. Whether it’s breaking down opponents in settled play or creating through transitions and counterattacks, they have a very complete range of scoring methods. On the other side, Uruguay under Bielsa are a typical high-pressure team. Their average xG is also 1.9, and their aggressive pressing forces opponents into 31% of backline buildup errors. Add in their aerial advantage on set pieces, and their attacking threat has remained consistently strong. When you combine both teams’ attacking quality, the baseline expected goals are already very close to the 2.25 threshold. Then there’s the tactical angle. Uruguay need points in this match to firmly seize control of qualification, so they are unlikely to sit deep and defend. If they push up to press, they will inevitably leave space in behind for Spain to attack. Conversely, when Spain dominate possession, if they are pressed into a turnover by Uruguay’s high press, Uruguay can immediately launch attacks at the defense. This kind of open, back-and-forth pattern will create far more high-quality scoring chances than a cautious, defensive stalemate. Of course, there are uncertainties. If Spain build an early big lead, they may slow the tempo and control the game later on. But Uruguay’s desire to get a result will not fade, and their attacking commitment will not drop, so the goal output is unlikely to be fully suppressed. Personally, I’m very optimistic about the over.