In Round 17 of the Estonian Meistriliiga, Tammeka host Narva. The home side sit 5th, while the visitors are bottom in 10th place, so Tammeka have clearly been the stronger team this season. Narva have taken just 0 wins, 1 draw and 7 defeats in 8 away matches, a truly dismal record on the road, and at first glance the home side appear to have a clear advantage. However, the handicap line deserves closer inspection. The Asian handicap for this match is Tammeka -0.5/1, with the home odds staying in the relatively low range of 0.80-0.88. Given Tammeka’s excellent recent form (4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in their last 6), the half-goal to one-goal line is a reasonable setting. That said, although Tammeka’s win rate against the spread over their last 10 matches is as high as 66.7%, most of those wins have been by a single goal, with only 2 matches won by more than two goals. Against a Narva side whose away defence is virtually non-existent but who still hold the upper hand in the head-to-head record, Tammeka may not be able to cruise to a big victory. In the European odds market, the home win is concentrated in the 1.65-1.70 range, the draw is 3.80-4.00, and the away win is 4.50-5.00. The away-win price has not been pushed up significantly, suggesting the bookmakers are wary of Narva getting something from the match. In the last 10 meetings between the two sides, Tammeka have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 defeats. At home against Narva, they are even further behind with 2 wins, 1 draw and 5 defeats, meaning they are completely at a disadvantage. Although Narva are bottom of the table, they are not psychologically intimidated when facing Tammeka. Overall, the home side have the edge in terms of strength, but their poor head-to-head record is obvious. With such a deep handicap, the away side have the conditions to hold the line. Narva to avoid defeat away from home looks like the more likely outcome.