Although New Zealand failed to win their opening match, the 2-2 draw with Iran still exceeded expectations. The attacking partnership between Wood and Just has shown some threat, while the whole team’s running distance and intensity in duels have been at a relatively high level. Although their win rate has not been high in the last 10 matches, they have repeatedly covered the spread against stronger opponents, demonstrating remarkable resilience. New Zealand’s advantages in physical duels and aerial battles will be key weapons in their attempt to counter Egypt’s technical style. Egypt held Belgium to a 1-1 draw in their opener, and their defensive discipline deserves praise. However, in attack, Egypt managed only two shots on target throughout the match. The partnership between Salah and Marmoush lacked chemistry up front, and against Belgium’s high press, Egypt’s attacking build-up repeatedly came to a halt. Although Egypt have maintained a high unbeaten rate in their last 10 matches, their scoring efficiency has also been poor, averaging just 1.1 goals per game. In this match, the opening Asian handicap had New Zealand as a +0.5/+1 underdog, but it was later adjusted to +1 by kickoff. The away team’s odds moved up from the 0.78-0.85 low-to-mid range to the high range of 1.00-1.08. The line moving from +0.75 to +1.0 seems to indicate stronger confidence in Egypt, but the issue lies in the odds movement — after the line increased, the away odds did not fall; instead, they rose, with several bookmakers offering high odds above 1.00. Given Egypt’s need to win, bookmakers would have had every reason to push the odds below 0.90 to reduce payout risk, yet they did not do so. This suggests that a large amount of market money has poured in on Egypt, while the bookmakers have not lowered the odds to control payout exposure. In the European odds market, the away win price was lowered from the 1.60-1.65 range to 1.45-1.50, the draw was raised from 3.60-3.80 to 4.20-4.50, and the home win surged from 5.50-6.00 to 7.00-8.00. The drop in the away win price was limited, and the rise in the draw odds did not completely rule out the possibility of New Zealand taking points. New Zealand’s strengths in physical battles and set pieces could pose a threat to Egypt’s defense. Asian handicap recommendation: New Zealand +1.