The under 2.25 is the real deal here
After twenty years of football commentary, let me tell you something from the heart: don’t just see two teams with big names and assume it’s going to be an all-out attacking battle. When Scotland face Morocco, the more reliable standard pick is under 2.25.
First, let’s talk about Scotland’s attacking level. Calling them second-tier in Europe would already be flattering. Against teams that sit deep, they have little more than crosses and long-range shots; it takes them ages to create even one decent chance, and their goals often depend on pure luck. And what are the Scots like in major tournaments? Extremely conservative. They’d rather bolt their own door shut first, and whether they win by one goal or draw, it’s not a loss. They’re simply not the type to go blow for blow in an all-out attack.
As for Morocco, there’s even less need to say more. Their football DNA is basically engraved with the words “defensive counterattack.” They tighten the defensive fence first, then nick one from you and that’s that. In a match, getting two or three decent counterattacking chances is already pretty good. If you’re expecting them to open up and trade attacks with you, what are you thinking?
Of course, if a penalty or a goalkeeper’s howler comes along, nobody can say for sure. But in a normal game, I’d say the total goals are very likely to stay under two, and the under 2.25 side is the direction to follow.