2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles The group-stage report is now in the past: the Netherlands finished top of Group A, while Morocco emerged from Group F as the tournament’s dark horse. Two teams, two extreme styles, standing at the door of the knockout stage, with the fight already boiling over. The Netherlands’ problem is written all over their face: they can score, but they can also concede. They scored eight goals in three group matches, second only to Brazil, and the link-up play between Cody Gakpo and Xavi Simons had every opponent’s right side trembling. But as Virgil van Dijk gets older, and with Jurrien Timber’s aggressive stepping out to press, there is a high-risk zone behind them that can be exposed by one-on-one counters. The Netherlands conceded in all three games, and the chances they allowed opponents to create averaged 1.7 big chances per match. This is exactly the kind of script Morocco love. With Achraf Hakimi and Hakim Ziyech providing a high-speed lane down the right, plus Youssef En-Nesyri’s aerial ability to force breakthroughs in the box, Morocco are certainly not going to sit back and hope for a clean sheet. They know very well that against the Netherlands, shrinking into a shell means death; only by attacking can they find a slim chance of survival. The total goals line has been set at 2.25, a value pocket shaped by a market spooked by the “knockout-stage under” mentality. The Netherlands’ set-piece height—Van Dijk and Nathan Aké combined come close to 390 centimeters—against a Morocco back line whose average height is under 185 centimeters, means corners are almost as dangerous as penalties. And Morocco’s transition speed can punish the Dutch any time they push their defensive line up to the halfway line with that kind of arrogance. Two goals returns half a win, three goals cashes the full ticket; the safety rope is already in place. Projected score: 2-1 or 3-1, with both goalkeepers likely to be busy all night. Recommendation: Over 2.25. For reference only!