For reference only! Don’t be fooled by Belgium’s first two matches, trust me. They came against Egypt and Iran, both of whom sat deep in a low block. It’s only natural that breaking them down was difficult. But New Zealand? Come on, this defense is paper-thin. They concede 2.5 goals per game on average, have gone 13 straight matches without a clean sheet, and their goals conceded per shot faced rate is miserably low. You can tell just how poor this defensive quality is. Belgium’s golden generation may no longer be at its peak, but they still have plenty of quality left. De Bruyne’s midfield control and passing vision are still top-class, and once Doku gets going down the flank, New Zealand’s two slow full-backs simply won’t be able to keep up. On top of that, Belgium must win this game and also push for a goal-difference advantage, so they’ll surely go all out. With a high defensive line and wave after wave of attacks through the wings and half-spaces, New Zealand’s sluggish center-back setup just won’t be able to hold out. Look at New Zealand, too — they’re basically already out, so how much motivation can they really have? Wood does offer a target up top, and their set-piece conversion rate isn’t low, but Belgium’s aerial defense isn’t bad either. New Zealand also lacks stamina. Once they hit a physical wall in the second half and their defensive shape starts to fall apart, this could turn into a big-margin game. Of course, it’s not completely risk-free. Lukaku really has been well below par, and Belgium’s overall shooting conversion rate is also on the low side. But against a New Zealand defense of this level, the xG is there. Once the chances come, someone will eventually finish them.