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P. N. Uvgren

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[Picks]Finland's Top Side Sounding the Horn on the Road?

2942d ago

Handicap05/22 16:00Veikkausliiga finlandesa

Derrota

Vaasa VPS

Vaasa VPS
FT--
HJK Helsínquia

HJK Helsínquia

Casa+0,5 (-)
Fora-0,5 (-)
The landscape of the Veikkausliiga has loosened a little this season. Inter Turku have emerged as surprise leaders of the standings, while traditional powerhouse HJK Helsinki are only in 4th place at the moment, with 3 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 8 matches and a win rate of less than 40%. For a team that has dominated Finnish football over the past decade, this start is clearly below par. Even so, the handicap for this match still showed the away side due respect. HJK Helsinki were listed as 0.25-goal away favorites for this game, with the odds holding steady between 0.80 and 0.85. In the Veikkausliiga, there are not many away teams given a line, and even fewer that are favored by 0.25. HJK's away record this season has not been particularly impressive either — 1 win, 2 draws and 1 loss from 4 away matches, with 5 goals scored and 3 conceded. The defense has been decent, but the attacking efficiency has been average. Even so, the bookmakers still made HJK the away favorite, which suggests that from a professional perspective, HJK are still rated above VPS Vaasa. The home side VPS Vaasa have recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 7 matches this season, losing only once and maintaining a very high unbeaten rate. But a closer look at their schedule shows that their two wins came against Mariehamn and Ilves, both lower- or mid-table sides; against stronger teams such as Inter Turku and Oulu, they failed to win any of those matches. In other words, the quality of VPS Vaasa's unbeaten run needs to be discounted. The head-to-head record is another unavoidable factor. In the last 10 meetings between the two sides, VPS Vaasa have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses, clearly on the back foot. Last season, the two sides met twice, with HJK winning 2-0 away and 3-1 at home to complete the double over their opponents. Over the past five seasons, VPS Vaasa have beaten HJK at home only once. This kind of long-term psychological disadvantage often translates into real on-pitch passivity. There is also HJK's own need to bounce back. As the most valuable squad in the Veikkausliiga and the team with the deepest roster, their current league position is obviously below expectations. Against a lower-mid-table side like this, they have a great chance to take points and close the gap at the top. With no European competition distractions, they can focus fully on the league. Overall, the handicap support is clear, the head-to-head record is heavily one-sided, and the away side have plenty of motivation to take points. Score prediction: 0-1, 0-2, 1-2.
Esta análise é apenas para referência. Aposte com responsabilidade.