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P. N. Uvgren

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[Picks]Brazil Serie B Preview: Tactical Battle at the Bottom of the Table

546d ago

Mais/Menos05/18 22:00Série B do Brasileirão

Derrota

Ponte Preta

Ponte Preta
FT--
Londrina PR

Londrina PR

Mais-
Line2/2,5
Menos-
In Round 9 of Brazil Serie B, Ponte Preta host Londrina. It is a clash between the third-bottom and second-bottom sides in the table, and also a duel of attacking impotence where “whoever scores will be the awkward one.” The attacking numbers for both teams can only be described as dismal. The hosts Ponte Preta have scored just 6 goals in 8 league matches, averaging 0.75 goals per game; visitors Londrina have scored 8 in 8, averaging 1 per game, which sounds slightly better, but note this: three of those eight goals came in one match (a 3-1 away win over Novorizontino), while in the other seven games they managed just five goals. In other words, both sides have found it extremely difficult to break down opponents in the vast majority of their matches. What about the defense? The hosts have conceded 12 in 8, averaging 1.5 per game; the visitors have conceded 14 in 8, averaging 1.75. Those figures do not look great, but given that Brazil Serie B is inherently a low-scoring league, the goals conceded are not outrageously high. More importantly, when two teams lacking firepower meet, the game often turns into a war of attrition in which neither side dares to push forward too aggressively. The goals line is the clearest signal for this match. Bookmakers have generally opened with a line of 2 or 2/2.5 goals. Note that a 2-goal line is already on the low side in Brazil Serie B. More importantly, by the closing stages nearly all bookmakers had lowered the line to 2 goals, with the odds for the Over generally sitting in the high 0.89-1.00 range, while the Under was priced in the lower 0.73-0.95 range. In the head-to-head record, the Over rate in the last 10 meetings is only 50%, and the last three Serie B clashes between the two sides have all gone Under (two Unders, one push). The teams know each other well, so there should not be many tactical surprises. As for squad news, neither side has any key absentees, so both can field close to full strength. But that is hardly a boost for two already blunt attacks — even with all available players on the pitch, they still cannot find the net, which suggests the problem runs deeper. Overall, both teams are stuck in the relegation zone and under huge pressure to collect points, but their attacking limitations cap their ceiling. A 2-goal line is a fairly high hurdle for two sides whose combined average goals per game is under 2. The recommendation is that total goals stay at 2 or fewer, and the Under looks worth considering.
Esta análise é apenas para referência. Aposte com responsabilidade.