I’m really backing Iran +0.25 in this one. Don’t think Egypt having Salah means they’re guaranteed to win — it’s really not that simple. Think about it: Iran’s defense has been excellent. In their last 15 matches, they’ve conceded just 0.8 goals per game on average, and their clean-sheet rate is over 50%. That’s not luck — it’s a proper system. Their deep defensive block is very compact across all three lines, and it’s genuinely hard to get through that midfield line. They even kept Belgium off the scoresheet in their last match, so you can see how solid this defense is. As for Egypt, Salah is certainly brilliant, but football isn’t played by one man alone, right? Their overall attacking efficiency is actually not that high. In the World Cup, their shot conversion rate was just a little over 9%, below average. And did you know their starting defensive midfielder is suspended? That midfield shield is gone, and both their defensive and attacking transitions will be affected. Against a team like Iran that sits deep, it’s not easy to break them down. Then there’s motivation, which you have to consider too. Egypt only needs a draw to finish top of the group — do they really need to go all out and fight tooth and nail? Iran still need a win to qualify, but they’re patient and won’t just throw bodies forward recklessly. In this kind of game, Iran are the side most comfortable with the tempo. Of course, football is unpredictable. If Salah goes superhuman, no one can stop him. But in all likelihood, Iran should have no problem covering the handicap.