Supercopa de España: Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Pro Prediction & Betting Tips

Match: Supercopa de España

Fixture: Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid

Local Kick-off Time: 22:00, 8th January 2026 (10:00 p.m.)

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Opening Odds

Prediction: Atlético Madrid to Win or Draw

The two sides have seen a high proportion of draws in their head-to-head clashes in recent years. What’s more, whenever Atlético Madrid faces Real Madrid in cup competitions, they can always drag the game into the physical, attritional battle rhythm that they excel at. In their first La Liga meeting this season, Atlético Madrid thrashed Real Madrid 5-2 at home, proving that they are capable of overpowering the historically dominant Los Blancos. In the Asian Handicap, Real Madrid is given a -0.25 goal line—for such a closely contested fixture, this clearly reflects greater optimism for the more star-studded Real Madrid squad. However, it remains uncertain how competitive Real Madrid will be against top-tier opponents without Kylian Mbappé. Based on the pattern of their historical duels, a draw is highly likely, but there is good reason to back Atlético Madrid to defeat a Mbappé-less Real Madrid in Saudi Arabia.

Comprehensive Prediction Analysis:

Atlético Madrid:

In the history of the Supercopa de España, Atlético Madrid has lifted the trophy only twice, with their most recent triumph dating back to 2014—their experience in this tournament is clearly less rich than Real Madrid’s. In their last five matches, Atlético Madrid has posted a steady record of 4 wins and 1 draw. The team has been plagued by inconsistencies over the past two seasons, stemming from Antoine Griezmann’s gradual decline, Sørloth’s erratic (and often underwhelming) performances, and the fact that Julián Álvarez alone has limited goal-scoring capacity. There is no denying that Atlético Madrid’s overall strength lags behind that of Real Madrid and Barcelona, but Diego Simeone’s in-game tactical adjustments still play a crucial role. In terms of squad availability, apart from the absence of González, Atlético Madrid has a relatively full-strength lineup, and they are well-positioned to put up a closely contested fight against Real Madrid in this match.

Real Madrid:

Real Madrid has claimed the Supercopa de España title 13 times in their illustrious history, with an additional 7 runner-up finishes—their achievements in this tournament are second only to Barcelona’s. This marks their seventh consecutive appearance in the competition; they have reached the final in four of the last six editions, lifting the trophy in 2022 and 2024. In their last five matches, Real Madrid has recorded 4 wins and 1 loss, with their only defeat coming against Manchester City—they remain highly competitive against domestic opponents. The most impactful injury for Real Madrid right now is Kylian Mbappé’s absence, but this also presents an opportunity for the likes of Vinícius Júnior, Rodrygo, and Gonzalo García to step up. In their last match against Real Betis, young striker Gonzalo García scored a hat-trick, and Real Madrid is expected to stick with the same tactics they employed in that game. In terms of the squad, Mbappé is the key absentee, but the injury issues in the defensive line have almost been resolved. Theoretically, Real Madrid boasts exceptional squad depth and a wealth of talented young players, giving them plenty of tactical options. With the entire team in high spirits, Real Madrid may well create more scoring opportunities.

Final Prediction:

Asian Handicap: Real Madrid -0.25

European Handicap: Real Madrid Win

Predicted Scores: 1-0, 1-1, 0-0

Predicted Total Goals: 0, 1, 2