A joint military strike on Iran by the President of the United States and Israel has sparked panic across the Middle East, leaving the outcome of the armed conflict uncertain. This threatens not only the future of Iran and its people, who are suffering the devastation of bombing raids, but also the future of the Iranian national football team.
The Iranian national team has already secured qualification for the upcoming FIFA World Cup, which will be held in the United States, Canada and Mexico this summer from 11 June to 19 July, organised by FIFA and its President.
On Saturday, Mehdi Taj, President of the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran, expressed his pessimism over the situation.
Reporter: What is your assessment of Iran’s ability to participate in the upcoming World Cup amid the ongoing military attacks and escalating tensions in the region?
Mehdi Taj: Given the current circumstances and this attack by the United States, we are afraid we cannot hold out any hope for the World Cup. Ultimately, however, this will be decided by the leaders of the sporting world.
This marks Iran’s seventh qualification for the FIFA World Cup finals – and their fourth consecutive appearance. They have been drawn into Group G alongside Belgium, Egypt and New Zealand, with all their group matches scheduled to take place in Los Angeles and Seattle on the west coast of the United States.
Should Iran withdraw from the tournament, the Asian Football Confederation (AFC), of which Iran is a member, will put forward replacement teams. With the World Cup expanded to 48 teams for this edition, Asia will have between 8 and 9 qualification spots, with the exact number dependent on the outcome of the inter-confederation play-offs.
In the event of an Iranian withdrawal, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates are widely regarded as the two frontrunners to take the direct qualification spot for the World Cup finals, with both teams having come extremely close to automatic qualification in the regional qualifiers. For now, however, Iraq still have a chance to qualify via the inter-confederation play-offs to be held in Monterrey, Mexico on 31 March, where they will face either Bolivia or Suriname.
Should Iraq win that play-off tie, they will be placed into Group I alongside France, Senegal and Norway. In that scenario, the United Arab Emirates – who finished as runners-up in the Asian play-offs, losing to Iraq 3-2 on aggregate with scores of 1-1 and 1-2 across the two legs – would be in line to take the spot vacated by an Iranian withdrawal.
For now, FIFA, which was clearly not anticipating this conflict, is standing by the cautious statement made by its Secretary General, Mattias Grafström.
Reporter: What is FIFA’s official position on the ongoing tensions in the Middle East and the potential impact on Iran’s participation in the 2026 World Cup?
Mattias Grafström: It is too early to comment in detail at this moment, but we are closely monitoring the development of all issues around the world. We will, as always, remain in contact with the governments of the three host countries: the United States, Mexico and Canada. The safety and security of all individuals will be guaranteed.
Iran also face a second, albeit currently low, risk: suspension and expulsion from the tournament by FIFA. There are no provisions in FIFA’s statutes that allow for a country to be expelled if it is in a state of war, particularly when the country in question did not initiate the conflict.
However, all scenarios remain on the table if the safety and security of Iran’s national team matches cannot be guaranteed, and if a significant number of participating teams formally refuse to play against Iran. These were the exact two grounds on which Russia was suspended and expelled from international football following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
This eventuality, like a voluntary withdrawal by the Iranian Football Federation, would be a devastating blow for the Iranian players, who have previously shown immense courage and opposition to the country’s current regime. During the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar, they refused to sing the national anthem ahead of their opening match in protest of the ongoing oppression of women in Iran.
FIFA insiders have noted that there is still time for a resolution, with more than a hundred days remaining until the World Cup kicks off, and it is entirely possible that the conflict will be resolved before then.
Donald Trump has just assured all parties that every issue will be finalised in "four weeks or less". His friend Gianni Infantino, FIFA President, has no choice but to take him at his word.
