Match: CAF Africa Cup of Nations
Fixture: Mali VS Senegal
Local Kick-off Time: 5:00pm, Friday 9th January 2026
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Opening Odds
| Category | Item | Corresponding Odds |
|---|---|---|
1X2 | 1 | 6.50 |
| X | 3.60 | |
| 2 | 1.62 | |
Asian Handicap | +0.5/1 | 1.98 |
| -0.5/1 | 1.83 | |
Scored | Goals (2) - Over | 1.75 |
| Goals (2) - Under | 2.05 | |
Corners | Corners (8.5) - Over | 1.66 |
| Corners (8.5) - Under | 2.10 |
Prediction: Senegal wins
Mali have already defied the odds to reach the quarter-final without winning a match from open play as yet, but they now have to face a massive step up in class of opposition, one they’ve not beaten in almost three decades.
Barring the draw to DR Congo, Senegal have looked a class above the opponents they have come up against in this competition, and we fancy the Lions of Teranga to progress to the last four from this tie. Our Mali vs Senegal prediction is Senegal wins.
Comprehensive Prediction Analysis:
Mali
| Date | Competition | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/12/30 | CAF Africa Cup of Nations | Comoros | 0-0 (HT 0-0 FT 0-0) | Mali |
| 2025/12/27 | CAF Africa Cup of Nations | Morocco | 1-1 (HT 1-0 FT 1-1) | Mali |
| 2025/12/22 | CAF Africa Cup of Nations | Mali | 1-1 (HT 0-0 FT 1-1) | Zambia |
| 2025/11/19 | International Friendly | Jordan | 0-0 (HT 0-0 FT 0-0) | Mali |
| 2025/10/13 | FIFA World Cup qualification (CAF) | Mali | 4-1 (HT 2-0 FT 4-1) | Madagascar |
| 2025/10/09 | FIFA World Cup qualification (CAF) | Chad | 0-2 (HT 0-1 FT 0-2) | Mali |
| 2025/09/09 | FIFA World Cup qualification (CAF) | Ghana | 1-0 (HT 0-0 FT 1-0) | Mali |
| 2025/09/05 | FIFA World Cup qualification (CAF) | Mali | 3-0 (HT 1-0 FT 3-0) | Comoros |
| 2025/06/06 | International Friendly | Democratic Republic of the Congo | 1-0 (HT 1-0 FT 1-0) | Mali |
| 2025/03/25 | FIFA World Cup qualification (CAF) | Central African Republic | 0-0 (HT 0-0 FT 0-0) | Mali |
Mali’s path to the knockout round was an unusual one, as they only managed three points (D3) in the group stage, but that proved enough for second place behind hosts Morocco.
The Eagles then pulled off arguably the biggest upset of the last 16, holding fancied Tunisia to a 1-1 draw after extra time before beating the Carthage Eagles 3-2 in a thrilling penalty shootout.
Mali have reached the semi-finals six times in the past but not since 2013. One key factor here is that the Eagles will be playing their first game in Tangier this week, while Senegal has played all four of their matches at this venue.
Lassine Sinayoko has been by far the most important player for Mali in this competition, as he has scored all three of their goals at AFCON 2025 and is now the nation’s third-highest goal-scorer in their AFCON history (6).
One player that will be crucial to Mali’s chances of progressing to the semis is shot-stopper Djigui Diarra. He made five saves in the last-16 clash against Tunisia, stopped two penalties, and was widely considered Player of the Match.
Senegal
| Date | Competition | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/01/04 | CAF Africa Cup of Nations | Senegal | 3-1 (HT 2-1 FT 3-1) | Sudan |
| 2025/12/31 | CAF Africa Cup of Nations | Benin | 0-3 (HT 0-1 FT 0-3) | Senegal |
| 2025/12/27 | CAF Africa Cup of Nations | Senegal | 1-1 (HT 0-0 FT 1-1) | Democratic Republic of the Congo |
| 2025/12/23 | CAF Africa Cup of Nations | Senegal | 3-0 (HT 1-0 FT 3-0) | Botswana |
| 2025/11/18 | International Friendly | Senegal | 8-0 (HT 6-0 FT 8-0) | Kenya |
| 2025/11/16 | International Friendly | Brazil | 2-0 (HT 2-0 FT 2-0) | Senegal |
| 2025/10/15 | FIFA World Cup qualification (CAF) | Senegal | 4-0 (HT 1-0 FT 4-0) | Mauritania |
| 2025/10/10 | FIFA World Cup qualification (CAF) | South Sudan | 0-5 (HT 0-1 FT 0-5) | Senegal |
| 2025/09/10 | FIFA World Cup qualification (CAF) | Democratic Republic of the Congo | 2-3 (HT 2-1 FT 2-3) | Senegal |
| 2025/09/06 | FIFA World Cup qualification (CAF) | Senegal | 2-0 (HT 2-0 FT 2-0) |
Meanwhile, Senegal reached the knockout stage of the 2025 AFCON by topping Group C, recording 3-0 victories over Botswana and Benin, either side of a 1-1 draw against DR Congo.
In the round of 16, the Lions of Teranga were given an early scare, conceding to Sudan in the sixth minute, but they won the match 3-1, marking their first comeback victory in this competition since 2015.
The 2021 champions are now unbeaten in their last 15 AFCON matches in regulation time (W10 D5) and nine AFCON knockout games. They have also scored in each of their last eight games in this competition, dating back to the 2021 final.
While Senegal possesses heaps of quality across the pitch, the creative spark in the side remains Sadio Mane, who has three assists and a goal in this competition. He now also holds the record for the most assists in AFCON history (9).
Ismaila Sarr has yet to open his account in this tournament, but he led the team with nine touches in the opposing penalty area against Sudan and could be key to stretching Mali’s defence.
At the opposite end of the pitch, Moussa Niakhate has been the team’s defensive leader and crucial to helping build play out from defence. He recorded the most touches, passes, and the highest passing accuracy in the last match.
Final Prediction:
Asian Handicap: Senegal -0.5/1
European Handicap: Senegal wins
Predicted Scores: 0-2, 1-2, 1-3
Predicted Total Goals: 2, 3, 4
This content provides sports news and analysis for fan discussion only. Sports events involve uncertainties; actual results shall prevail.
