Match: Serie A
Fixture: Fiorentina vs AC Milan
Local Kick-off Time: 15:00, 11th January 2026 (3:00 p.m.)
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Prediction: AC Milan to Win
In the Asian Handicap, AC Milan is given a -0.5 goal line, a reasonable odds set given the gap in the two teams’ league performances this season. Since signing Niclas Füllkrug, AC Milan’s ability to break down compact defences has improved significantly. Fiorentina’s defensive line will face a tough test against AC Milan’s attacking threat, and we are backing AC Milan to claim an away victory.
Comprehensive Prediction Analysis
Fiorentina:
Despite qualifying for European competitions last season, Fiorentina’s form has nosedived this campaign. They currently sit 18th in the league with 13 points, three points adrift of safety. Their recent form has shown signs of improvement, however: they have picked up 7 points in their last five matches, holding Lazio to a draw away from home and defeating Cremonese and Udinese at home, which has lifted them off the bottom of the table. Fiorentina’s attacking output is decent, but their defensive record is abysmal—they have conceded 30 goals in 19 matches, the worst in Serie A. This poor defensive performance has often led to heavy defeats against stronger opposition.
AC Milan:
AC Milan snatched a late equaliser in their last match and currently sits second in the league with 38 points, just one point behind city rivals Inter Milan, keeping them firmly in the title race. They have recorded 3 wins and 2 draws in their last five matches, enjoying a solid run of form. Rafael Leão and Christian Pulisic have scored 15 goals combined this season, and they will be looking to continue their good form against Fiorentina’s shaky defence. AC Milan boasts the league’s tightest defensive record, having conceded only 14 goals this season, a testament to Massimiliano Allegri’s excellent defensive coaching. That said, AC Milan has often struggled to secure convincing wins against lower-ranked teams this season, highlighting their occasional lack of cutting edge against deep-lying defences in Serie A.
Final Prediction
Asian Handicap: AC Milan -0.5
European Handicap: Away Win
Predicted Scores: 0-1, 0-2, 1-2
Predicted Total Goals: 1, 2, 3
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